college prep work

Sunday, May 07, 2006

proving oil peak

The Economist article that our class read makes the statement that there will not be a peak of oil. That extraction will simply plateau. They cite Peter Jackson a worker for the Cambridge Energy Research Associates or the CERA. The Economist uses this person as their proof that there will not be a peak. Jackson simply says that a foreshadow of a peak will encourage people to change their efficiency. “ The right picture is of an undulating plateau.” Lets look directly at the people that the Economist is relying on for their information and facts. The CERA is a research company that works for hire for energy companies, governments, and financial institutions. From looking at their site and the people they have been speaking for it is clear that they have worker very strictly for oil companies.
The head of the CERA was on the meet the press television show recently to express his ideas on why the gas prices are so high. Both on the television show and speaking to congress as they just recently did CERA sticks to the view that the high oil prices are caused by wars and conflicts in oil countries. Now while that may be true that there are currently conflicts in high rich countries like Nigeria, I feel that is a safe way to always have a reason for the high prices. While countries like Nigeria and Iraq are being controlled by rocky governments there will always be conflict. So that will make people feel safe, because it wont be the fact that oil is becoming scarce its just the fact that people in countries far away are fighting.
Lets look more closely at who the CERA works for and how that would influence their decisions. The first people they list as their employers are energy companies. So if they were hired by them to find out what will oil do when it reaches its highest extraction point and they say that there will be a peak followed by a collapse, people would be forced into changing their ways. If they go in front of congress as they recently did and say that oil is simply acting this way because of fighting in oil rich countries everyone feels safe. It is also very hard to directly see what any of their findings are. To see their research papers that they put out and have listed on, one must literally pay thousands of dollars. So the only people who will be seeing it are the super rich. While the oil situation when it collapses still will affect the rich, they will be protected by the governments and its high prices in the years before the collapse will not hurt them as much. As well as that rich Americans investing in oil would want to keep it going for as long as possible, so the idea of a collapse later when they are the super elite would not really hurt them.
Lets look directly at the idea of the oil peak. No one seems to argue that it will happen around the time that half the oil is extracted and half still remains in the ground. So if that happens and there is a plateau of this super high extraction what will that mean once oil does come down from the plateau. It will be forced to decrease even more sharply.
Something we need to look at is how our country is set up depending on oil. While oil prices continue to rise and become more difficult to obtain, places in the middle of country that is spread out will not be able to function. Food and other materials will not be able to be brought to those areas and they will be completely shut off. The longer it goes or plateaus the faster areas will be shut off later.


At 9:45 PM, Blogger Doris said...

That is so interesting. Where do u get your information from? I am doing something like this for my research too. You seen to have a lot of time to research information that I thought about looking up. What inspire you to look up the people in the article? How does it have anything to do with your arguement research?


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