college prep work

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Optimistic peak

It was very intriguing to read these regular peoples readings. The regulation of the stories needing to be optimistic seemed like it brought people to have good ideas, but at the same time stopped people from being able to look at the whole picture.
The first one Jan’s five-year vision reminded me of the community we watched the video on. In some of my more happy outcomes somewhere in the middle of best and worst case scenario’s I have said that people will have to start small village communities where they all work together, and Jan’s vision did just that. They cooked, cleaned, and shared everything almost like a small-scale communist community. Something that bothered me and I did not feel was very realistic was how there seemed to be so many experts in Jan’s little village. Not only did they have all this technology that was not explained how it came about, but they also had people who were creating completely new technology such as a solar crucible that used things called fresnel Len’s.
They talk about replacing all the petroleum technology with rapeseed oil, and somehow with algae they do not explain the current issue that we have today with finding enough oil to run a community. If they are continuing to use as much petroleum and as average community or family does in this day and age I do not feel that they would be able to keep it up with just seed oil. Also if they are farming all this oil in their land I think after a few years they would be having a huge amount of erosion. In the United States today the item that is causing the most erosion is the soybean farms. So their soil could be ruined pretty quickly unless they are switching their crops around so that the ground continues to get different minerals.
Jan’s vision was interesting for the fact how 5 years from now it seemed so optimistic. They had this community that was working really well together and were developing new technology to start a new way of life that did not rely as heavily on petroleum. For her 50-year scheme it is completely different. While the world all around, him or her not really sure, falls into complete disaster, and massive death the little community stays all right. Even when a rogue group of militia shows up they stay fine. Personally in all my predictions when the United States falls into military chaos, the only choice will be to join up with a group, or start your own guerilla action. Non-violence will not be able to be kept up when there are countless amounts of soldiers.
The second place essay called the silver lining I felt describes how the overall public, and the government is acting about petroleum very well. The reason for the lack of research in alternative energy by the governments is the fact that the leaders thing it would cause chaos and fear. The reason the average person is not acting like it is an issue is that they feel there is simply some other technology waiting to be brought around, so there is no real worry about it.
The near future scheme I feel is dead on. As we have in our past great depression due to the massive amounts of dept that has been built up people will fault on all their payments. Which will immediately throw a large percentage of the population into extreme poverty. When that happens the people will become so unhappy that riots in the cities will spark up. As we saw in the Chicago and Watts riots during the civil rights years, it wont is the rich people and factories that will be targeted but the poor neighborhoods themselves will be destroyed. When people in class were asked if they would leave the cities when the peak oil got bad almost every person raised their hand, as did I. I have put more thought into it and I feel that I would want to stay now. The cities are going to be where the uprisings and the people who want to create drastic change with government will be forming. And while I would like to be part of these nice small villages that will be sprouting, I feel that overall it would be more important to try and make cities and other areas succeed.
I feel that there is hope for big cities like New York and Boston. The old port cities, because in order to sustain life that is what the large population areas will have to become again. New York City will need to reopen all it piers and goods will have to be brought in by boats and trains and other older forms of transportation. While that will help to make it more comfortable, the population of almost 10 million on NYC now will of course have to decrease. That does not have to happen by die off. It can happen from simply people moving out and creating small-centralized communities.

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